EUR/HUF to fall back below 420 and settle at 412 by end-Q4 – TDS

EUR/HUF has pushed above 420. Therefore, economists at TD Securities expect the Hungarian National Bank to tighten and drive the pair to 412 by the end of the fourth quarter.

NBH to continue running an FX-driven monetary policy

“We expect the NBH to continue running an FX-driven monetary policy, rather than an inflation-driven one. In essence, hike rates in response to forint weakness rather than upside inflation risks.”

“We think that EUR/HUF will trade in the 400-430 range in Q4 2022, but fall back below 420 and settle at 412 by the end of the quarter.”