USD/CNH: No changes to the consolidative mood near term – UOB

USD/CNH is expected to trade within a range bound theme for the time being, comment UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: After USD fell quickly to a low of 7.2780 on Monday, we highlighted yesterday that “the rapid drop from the high appears to be overdone, and USD is unlikely to weaken much further.” We expected USD to trade in a range of 7.2700/7.3200. Our view was not wrong, even though USD traded in a narrower range than expected (7.2708/7.3168). USD appears to have entered a consolidation phase. Today, we expect USD to trade sideways between 7.2800 and 7.3300.

Next 1-3 weeks: Our most recent narrative was from Monday (21 Aug, spot at 7.3100), wherein USD could consolidate for a few days before breaking above last week’s high of 7.3490. We continue to hold the same view. Overall, only a breach of 7.2500 (‘strong support’ level) would suggest that USD is not advancing further.