19 Dec 2014
China: NBS revises up 2013 GDP – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Nomura shares the National Bureau of Statistics’ announcement noting an upside revision for China’s 2013 GDP to 3.4%, further forecasting Q4 2014 GDP growth of 7.3% yoy on increased contribution from the service sector.
Key Quotes
“The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has announced on its official website that it has revised its preliminary GDP figure for 2013, based on results from the third National Economic Survey – a comprehensive survey covering corporations, industrial business, and self-employed firms in the secondary and tertiary sectors. The first national economic survey was for 2004 and the second for 2008.”
“Nominal GDP in 2013 was revised up by 3.4% to RMB58.8trn from a preliminary figure of RMB56.9trn. Moreover, shares of the agricultural, industrial and service sector in GDP were revised to 9.4% (10.0% previously), 43.7% (43.9%), and 46.9% (46.1%) respectively, with the share of the service sector rising while the other two declined.”
“The increased contribution from the service sector supports our view that output from the tertiary sector could fill the gap left by a weaker secondary sector.”
“We maintain our forecast of 7.3% y-o-y GDP growth in Q4 2014, although industrial production growth disappointed in October and November and the leading indicator in December continue to weaken.”
Key Quotes
“The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has announced on its official website that it has revised its preliminary GDP figure for 2013, based on results from the third National Economic Survey – a comprehensive survey covering corporations, industrial business, and self-employed firms in the secondary and tertiary sectors. The first national economic survey was for 2004 and the second for 2008.”
“Nominal GDP in 2013 was revised up by 3.4% to RMB58.8trn from a preliminary figure of RMB56.9trn. Moreover, shares of the agricultural, industrial and service sector in GDP were revised to 9.4% (10.0% previously), 43.7% (43.9%), and 46.9% (46.1%) respectively, with the share of the service sector rising while the other two declined.”
“The increased contribution from the service sector supports our view that output from the tertiary sector could fill the gap left by a weaker secondary sector.”
“We maintain our forecast of 7.3% y-o-y GDP growth in Q4 2014, although industrial production growth disappointed in October and November and the leading indicator in December continue to weaken.”