5 Mar 2015
Further tightening is expected in Brazil – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to Eduardo Suarez, Senior Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, the Brazilian central bank could deliver another 50 bp rate hike.
Key Quotes
“As very widely expected, the BCB’s COPOM announced a +50bps hike, taking the Selic rate to 12.75% (the highest since 2009)”.
“The decision to hike was unanimous, and the statement once again said the committee has no bias (the brief statement said “Taking into account the macroeconomic scenario and the outlook for inflation, the COPOM decided, by unanimity, to raise the Selic rate by 0.5 p.p., to 12.75%, with no bias”)”.
“We think the COPOM is “data dependent”, with the key variable to monitor at the moment being inflation expectations (so Monday’s release of the BCB’s weekly survey will be important), and the component behaviour of the IPCA inflation”.
“Our base case is the next decision will deliver another +50bps, but the committee seems to be on data dependence mode, which to us means that how the credibility of the fiscal adjustment plans impacts inflation & its expectations will be an important piece of the monetary policy puzzle”.
Key Quotes
“As very widely expected, the BCB’s COPOM announced a +50bps hike, taking the Selic rate to 12.75% (the highest since 2009)”.
“The decision to hike was unanimous, and the statement once again said the committee has no bias (the brief statement said “Taking into account the macroeconomic scenario and the outlook for inflation, the COPOM decided, by unanimity, to raise the Selic rate by 0.5 p.p., to 12.75%, with no bias”)”.
“We think the COPOM is “data dependent”, with the key variable to monitor at the moment being inflation expectations (so Monday’s release of the BCB’s weekly survey will be important), and the component behaviour of the IPCA inflation”.
“Our base case is the next decision will deliver another +50bps, but the committee seems to be on data dependence mode, which to us means that how the credibility of the fiscal adjustment plans impacts inflation & its expectations will be an important piece of the monetary policy puzzle”.