31 Jul 2013
Flash: Tapering, 5% chance - BMO
FXstreet.com (London) - Greg Anderson, Strategist at BMO Financial Group said he would place no more than 5% probability on the FOMC tapering QE at this meeting.
Key Quotes:
“There probably has been sufficient prepping of the market, but I believe the Fed still wants to see a couple of quarters of post-sequester economic data before beginning to taper.”
“If there were a Q&A, the #1 question would be the media seeking official confirmation that Bernanke is stepping down in January 2014”.
“The FOMC statement is the wrong place for that communication, but I would expect that the media focus on the Fed will push this item to the front of market consciousness”.
“So long as Janet Yellen remains the favorite to replace Bernanke, markets are likely to continue to expect very gradual adjustment to policy, be it by communications strategy, QE policy or interest rate policy”.
“At this writing, I would put maybe a 30% probability on taper beginning at the Sep 18 meeting and a 70% probability on taper beginning October 30”.
Key Quotes:
“There probably has been sufficient prepping of the market, but I believe the Fed still wants to see a couple of quarters of post-sequester economic data before beginning to taper.”
“If there were a Q&A, the #1 question would be the media seeking official confirmation that Bernanke is stepping down in January 2014”.
“The FOMC statement is the wrong place for that communication, but I would expect that the media focus on the Fed will push this item to the front of market consciousness”.
“So long as Janet Yellen remains the favorite to replace Bernanke, markets are likely to continue to expect very gradual adjustment to policy, be it by communications strategy, QE policy or interest rate policy”.
“At this writing, I would put maybe a 30% probability on taper beginning at the Sep 18 meeting and a 70% probability on taper beginning October 30”.