1 May 2015
Australian unemployment rate to disappoint consensus – Capital Economics
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Capital Economics expects Australian employment to suffer from a weakening in economic activity over the rest of the year.
Key Quotes
“After rising rapidly in February and March, we think that employment in Australia increased at a more modest pace in April.”
“While job vacancies and advertisements remain relatively high, the latest survey evidence suggests that the near 40,000 increases in employment seen in February and March are unlikely to have been repeated in April. In particular, the NAB employment index suggests that employment may have risen more modestly last month.”
“We have pencilled in an increase of 15,000 in April, but a smaller rise or outright fall is possible. If we are right in estimating that the labour force increased by around 20,000, the unemployment rate may have fallen back to 6.2%.”
“Looking ahead, we expect a weakening in economic activity over the rest of the year to lead to smaller increases in employment. This will push the unemployment rate up more sharply than most analysts are expecting.”
Key Quotes
“After rising rapidly in February and March, we think that employment in Australia increased at a more modest pace in April.”
“While job vacancies and advertisements remain relatively high, the latest survey evidence suggests that the near 40,000 increases in employment seen in February and March are unlikely to have been repeated in April. In particular, the NAB employment index suggests that employment may have risen more modestly last month.”
“We have pencilled in an increase of 15,000 in April, but a smaller rise or outright fall is possible. If we are right in estimating that the labour force increased by around 20,000, the unemployment rate may have fallen back to 6.2%.”
“Looking ahead, we expect a weakening in economic activity over the rest of the year to lead to smaller increases in employment. This will push the unemployment rate up more sharply than most analysts are expecting.”