6 Jul 2015
Grexit: Risks clearly shifted, 2/3 chance now - JPMorgan
FXStreet (Bali) - According to JP Morgan Strategy Team, the risks around Grexit have clearly shifted, with Greece leaving the Euro becoming the baseline scenario with a probability of about 2/3rd at present.
Key Quotes
"After the “no” victory at the referendum on Sunday, we believe that the risks around Grexit have clearly shifted, with Greece leaving the Euro becoming the baseline scenario with a probability of about 2/3rd at present."
"We see possibilities of Greece remaining in the Euro zone, either via a last minute agreement with current government under the assumption that the ECB continue to maintain and potentially increase ELA (15%) or in case in which Tsipras steps down and a new unity government is formed (20%)."
"Based on the new information (strong support to No vote, Greek government intention to re-start the negotiation, no comment from creditor countries, ECB re-iteration of its commitment to support the region), we do not change our targets. The most important drivers will be any news on status of the negotiations, decisions over ELA, and any hint that the ECB is ready to follow verbal intervention with any action to protect the market, either via existing measures or with a new programme."
Key Quotes
"After the “no” victory at the referendum on Sunday, we believe that the risks around Grexit have clearly shifted, with Greece leaving the Euro becoming the baseline scenario with a probability of about 2/3rd at present."
"We see possibilities of Greece remaining in the Euro zone, either via a last minute agreement with current government under the assumption that the ECB continue to maintain and potentially increase ELA (15%) or in case in which Tsipras steps down and a new unity government is formed (20%)."
"Based on the new information (strong support to No vote, Greek government intention to re-start the negotiation, no comment from creditor countries, ECB re-iteration of its commitment to support the region), we do not change our targets. The most important drivers will be any news on status of the negotiations, decisions over ELA, and any hint that the ECB is ready to follow verbal intervention with any action to protect the market, either via existing measures or with a new programme."