4 Dec 2015
Focus shifting from the ECB to the meetings of the Fed, BoE and SNB - Commerzbank
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The focus is now shifting from the ECB to the meetings of the Fed, BoE and SNB, says Thu Lan Nguyen, analyst at Commerzbank. Today’s release of the US labour market report is providing a final hint for the Fed meeting. As regards the BoE and SNB, markets likely hope to get some indications as to where monetary policy is headed.
Key Quotes
“Yesterday, the ECB caused quite some volatility in EUR exchange rates. But the FX market is still far from pausing, with several important central bank meetings looming ahead of Christmas. The key decision is certainly coming from the Fed (on December 16)”.
“Next Thursday, the monetary councils of the Bank of England (BoE) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will meet. Both central banks are expected to keep monetary policy unchanged. Market participants thus primarily hope for indications of future measures and – in the case of the SNB – also of past action.”
“The SNB could provide information on how much it intervened in recent weeks when the EUR came under pressure due to the prospect of additional ECB easing. In so doing, it could demonstrate to FX traders that it is prepared to prevent any strong appreciation of the franc. In the long run, however, this could backfire, especially if a sustained weakness of the EUR forced the SNB to intervene more frequently, which would expand its balance sheet.”
“BoE Governor Mark Carney has kept the markets waiting for a long time. Around mid-year, he pointed out that the decision on the start of monetary normalisation would come into sharper focus by the turn of the year. However, with inflation remaining disappointing in the UK, Carney is still unlikely to come out with a forecast on the timing of a first rate increase next Thursday. Upside potential for sterling therefore remains limited for now.”
Key Quotes
“Yesterday, the ECB caused quite some volatility in EUR exchange rates. But the FX market is still far from pausing, with several important central bank meetings looming ahead of Christmas. The key decision is certainly coming from the Fed (on December 16)”.
“Next Thursday, the monetary councils of the Bank of England (BoE) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will meet. Both central banks are expected to keep monetary policy unchanged. Market participants thus primarily hope for indications of future measures and – in the case of the SNB – also of past action.”
“The SNB could provide information on how much it intervened in recent weeks when the EUR came under pressure due to the prospect of additional ECB easing. In so doing, it could demonstrate to FX traders that it is prepared to prevent any strong appreciation of the franc. In the long run, however, this could backfire, especially if a sustained weakness of the EUR forced the SNB to intervene more frequently, which would expand its balance sheet.”
“BoE Governor Mark Carney has kept the markets waiting for a long time. Around mid-year, he pointed out that the decision on the start of monetary normalisation would come into sharper focus by the turn of the year. However, with inflation remaining disappointing in the UK, Carney is still unlikely to come out with a forecast on the timing of a first rate increase next Thursday. Upside potential for sterling therefore remains limited for now.”