24 Dec 2015
AUD: November retail sales data likely on softer side – Goldman Sachs
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Goldman Sachs, believes that the forthcoming release of Australia’s November retail sales on 8 January is likely to show that the growth momentum is fading.
Key Quotes
“Retail sales rose +0.5%mom in October, 10bps higher than consensus expectations. Growth was concentrated in department stores (+3.5%mom) and household goods (+1.1%mom), with the former likely due to the retailer David Jones liquidating old stock as part of a major strategy to overhaul its brands. Outside of these components, sales growth remained subdued, with the annual rate decelerating ~2ppts to a sub-4%yoy pace over the past year.”
“Looking ahead, we note that the heavy discounting by David Jones has reportedly ended in mid-November, raising the possibility that October’s momentum fades somewhat. Looking further ahead, the housing construction boom that has been generating demand for household goods is likely to taper into 2016, and though we are forecasting a recovery in consumer spending, we view the risks as skewed to the downside.”
L: +0.5%mom; C: +0.4%mom; F: +0.4%mom.
Key Quotes
“Retail sales rose +0.5%mom in October, 10bps higher than consensus expectations. Growth was concentrated in department stores (+3.5%mom) and household goods (+1.1%mom), with the former likely due to the retailer David Jones liquidating old stock as part of a major strategy to overhaul its brands. Outside of these components, sales growth remained subdued, with the annual rate decelerating ~2ppts to a sub-4%yoy pace over the past year.”
“Looking ahead, we note that the heavy discounting by David Jones has reportedly ended in mid-November, raising the possibility that October’s momentum fades somewhat. Looking further ahead, the housing construction boom that has been generating demand for household goods is likely to taper into 2016, and though we are forecasting a recovery in consumer spending, we view the risks as skewed to the downside.”
L: +0.5%mom; C: +0.4%mom; F: +0.4%mom.