ECB likely to ease further in March: Short EURUSD target 1.04 - BNPP

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BNP Paribas, notes that the ECB press conference was considerably more dovish than expected and the message was similar to the signal delivered at the October 2015 meeting which heralded the December rate cut and QE extension.

Key Quotes

“Our economists now expect a 10bp deposit rate cut and adjustment to the asset purchase programme to be announced at the March meeting (see here). We have initiated a short EURUSD recommendation, targeting a move down to 1.0400 with a stop at 1.1005.

Draghi’s message is a reminder of the two-sided nature of the policy divergence dynamics that are driving the USD. While Fed rate hike expectations have receded this month amid financial market stress and disappointing data, these same factors have led the ECB to signal a more accommodative policy stance.

Next Friday’s BoJ meeting could see similar developments and, while the Bank of Canada disappointed easing expectations for further easing this week, this was largely a response to recent weakening of the CAD, suggesting that buying USD remains attractive when key pairs are at the weak end of broad ranges.”