2 Mar 2016
ADP employment preview: What to expect of EUR/USD?
The downside in the EUR/USD pair was capped around 1.0845 (61.8% of 1.0517-1.1376) in Europe today despite moderate gains in the European stock markets. The investors now await the US monthly ADP private sector employment report.
ADP to influence NFP expectations
The data by itself has lost its power to trigger major moves in the FX markets off late; especially if the actual figure is weaker than estimates. Moreover, markets await confirmation from non-farm payrolls figure about the weakness in labor market and hence do not react to weak ADP figures.
On the other hand, a strong figure could heighten expectations regarding a possibility of a better-than-expected non-farm payrolls figure and hence could trigger broad based USD rally.
The ADP report, due today is likely to show the private sector added 190K jobs in February, compared to the January figure of 205K.
EUR/USD Technical Levels
The spot currently trades around 1.0850. The immediate support at 1.0845 (61.8% of 1.0517-1.1376) if breach could see the pair test 1.0777 (Jan 21 low). A break lower would open doors for a slide to 1.0720 (76.4% of 1.0517-1.1376). On the other hand, immediate hurdle is seen at 1.0881 (daily high), which if taken out could see the pair test resistance at 1.0946 (50% of 1.0517-1.1376). The pair would need to take out the same to test supply around 1.0982 (10-DMA).
ADP to influence NFP expectations
The data by itself has lost its power to trigger major moves in the FX markets off late; especially if the actual figure is weaker than estimates. Moreover, markets await confirmation from non-farm payrolls figure about the weakness in labor market and hence do not react to weak ADP figures.
On the other hand, a strong figure could heighten expectations regarding a possibility of a better-than-expected non-farm payrolls figure and hence could trigger broad based USD rally.
The ADP report, due today is likely to show the private sector added 190K jobs in February, compared to the January figure of 205K.
EUR/USD Technical Levels
The spot currently trades around 1.0850. The immediate support at 1.0845 (61.8% of 1.0517-1.1376) if breach could see the pair test 1.0777 (Jan 21 low). A break lower would open doors for a slide to 1.0720 (76.4% of 1.0517-1.1376). On the other hand, immediate hurdle is seen at 1.0881 (daily high), which if taken out could see the pair test resistance at 1.0946 (50% of 1.0517-1.1376). The pair would need to take out the same to test supply around 1.0982 (10-DMA).