21 Apr 2016
GBP/USD gains appear capped around 1.45 – Westpac
Richard Franulovich, Strategist at Wetspac, believes the pair’s upside could struggle to surpass the 1.45 handle.
Key Quotes
“Doubt GBP has the vigour to punch much above 1.45 - if at all - into the UK referendum late June”.
“Even if the polls break more convincingly toward “Bremain” it’s hard to see GBP fully unwinding the Brexit risk premium until the uncertainty of the vote is out of the way”.
“GBP should see a vicious squeeze higher if the event pans out – as seems likely – much the same way as the Scottish independence vote and the last UK general election (i.e. strong gains for the status quo, the polls significantly amiss), but that is a trade for another day”.
Key Quotes
“Doubt GBP has the vigour to punch much above 1.45 - if at all - into the UK referendum late June”.
“Even if the polls break more convincingly toward “Bremain” it’s hard to see GBP fully unwinding the Brexit risk premium until the uncertainty of the vote is out of the way”.
“GBP should see a vicious squeeze higher if the event pans out – as seems likely – much the same way as the Scottish independence vote and the last UK general election (i.e. strong gains for the status quo, the polls significantly amiss), but that is a trade for another day”.