UK: Expect a roughly flat reading for retail sales - TDS

Research Team at TDS, suggests that the UK retail sales for June are released, and they expect a roughly flat reading (vs consensus of -0.6%).

Key Quotes

“Sectoral indicators such as John Lewis sales suggest June retail sales held up relatively well through the pre-Referendum period, and generally speaking, it was firms and not consumer who were the most cautious pre-Brexit. But uncertainty over this release is high, and a significant downside shock wouldn’t surprise given the circumstances.

The survey period covered up to July 2nd, and therefore includes a disproportionate period of high post-Referendum uncertainty, which could weigh on monthly growth. The government’s net borrowing figures are also out for the month of June, and we’ll look carefully at corporate and VAT tax receipts for signs of a slowdown.”