CAD: Focus on BoC speakers – RBC CM

There is no data today and attention will focus on BoC speakers and first up is Governor Poloz, who speaks on “Business cycles, growth and macroeconomic policy” at the ECB’s Forum on Central Banking points out the research team a RBC Capital Markets.

Key quotes

“With the more hawkish tone that BoC comments have recently had seemingly a deliberate effort by the Bank to push markets to discount higher rates, there is no reason to expect Poloz to back away from that stance. Later, Deputy Governor Patterson speaks on “Markets Calling: Intelligence Gathering at the Bank of Canada” at the CFA Society Calgary. Again, expect any comments on the stance of monetary policy to be consistent with the Bank’s recent message. The forward curve currently prices a 30% probability of a hike at the July 12 BoC meeting and is just about fully priced for a hike by the end of the year. Near term, the risk is that these probabilities’ rise further, driving CAD higher. We remain in a tactical long CAD/NOK position entered on Monday. In USD/CAD, yesterday’s daily close below 1.3225 has completed a bearish flag pattern on the charts, thereby shifting the focus down to strong congestive support at 1.3000.”