Australia: Trade surplus expected to narrow to $0.9bn - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac, point out that Australia's trade balance has been in surplus for 11 consecutive months and for October, they expect another surplus, albeit narrowing to $0.9bn from $1.75bn.

Key Quotes

“Export earnings are forecast to decline by 1.7%, -$550mn. Iron ore earnings most likely fell back sharply, by around $1bn, reversing gains of the past two months, on lower prices, as well as softer volumes (most likely for lower grade ore). Coal volumes are down in the wake of moves by China to reduce thermal coal use. LNG volumes bounced back following recent disruptions, providing a partial offset.”

“The import bill is expected to rise by 0.9%, $0.3bn, as the weaker currency made imports more expensive. The AUD fell by 2.3% against the US dollar, to 77.9¢, and declined by 1.4% on a TWI basis.”