AUD/USD could retrace towards 200-day MA at 0.7705 - Commerzbank

Commerzbank Analyst Karen Jones is expecting AUD/USD to retrace towards the 200 day ma at .7705.

Key quotes

AUD/USD is at last starting to correct lower, it is finally reacting to the TD perfected set up on the daily chart and the 13 count on the 240 minute chart. It is essentially failing just ahead of the .7896 mid-October high and we look for more of a retracement towards the 200 day ma at .7705.

The market is bid above the 200 and 55 day ma at .7705/.7668. These guard strong support – namely the 2016-2018 uptrend line and double Fibonacci retracement at .7534/.7475 (50% retracement of the move up from the 2016 low AND the 78.6% retracement of the move seen from May 2017).

Where are we wrong? Above .7900 would target the .7998/.8000 78.6% retracement.

Short Term Trend (1-3 weeks): Bouncing from the 2016-2107 uptrend at .7524. Scope for .7900/.8000 region.

Long term trend (1-3 months): Neutral to positive above the 2016- 2017 uptrend.