US GDP tracking update - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered their GDP tracking update after today’s data release.

Key quotes:

"GDP tracking update: Today’s data release did not materially affect our Q1 GDP tracking estimate, which remains unchanged at 2.1% q-o-q saar after rounding. 

In the Q4 GDP report, the second estimate of real GDP growth came in at 2.5%, matching our Q4 GDP tracking estimate. 

However, real inventory investment was revised down, while real final sales were revised up. 

This implies a stronger increase in inventory buildup but a decline in real final sales in Q1 relative to Q4. 

In addition, a sharp decline in January pending home sales and the monthly profile of an annual revision imply weaker momentum in existing home sales in the months ahead. 

This suggests less brokers’ commissions in Q1, a component of residential investment in GDP accounting."