EUR/USD: Bearish setup intact, Draghi speech eyed

• Bearish outside-week candle, downward sloping moving averages (MAs) indicate the bearish setup is intact.
• The EUR/USD could extend decline towards 200-week MA of 1.1404 if ECB's Draghi sounds dovish.

The EUR/USD fell from 1.1852 to 1.1543 last week, creating a bearish outside-week candle, signaling the corrective rally from 1.1510 (May low) has ended and the bears have regained control.

Also, 5-week and 10-week MA are trending south indicating a bearish setup. Further, 5-day and 10-day MA are also biased bearish.

Further, the escalating US-China trade tensions and Merkel-Bavarian row on migrant crisis could only bolster the bearish technical setup. Clearly, the path of least resistance is to the downside.

Focus on Draghi's speech

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi will deliver opening remarks at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, scheduled from June 18 to June 20.

The common currency will likely run into fresh offers if Draghi reiterates ECB's dovish stance - rates will stay low well past end of the QE program and could go higher at the end of 2019.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

Resistance: 1.1660 (5-day MA), 1.1714 (10-day MA), 1.1852 (Thursday's high).

Support: 1.1543 (Friday's low), 1.1510 (May 29 low), 1.1404 (200-week MA).