UK: CPI and Brexit summit in focus - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are in line with the market expecting UK’s headline CPI to fall a tick to 2.6% y/y while core inflation slides to 2.0% y/y.

Key Quotes

“Last month's unexpected rise in inflation was driven by extremely volatile components such as computer games and travel packages, and thus has scope to reverse relatively quickly.”

“The EU leaders' Brexit summit kicks off with a dinner this evening, where Theresa May will address EU27 leaders before leaving while they discuss Brexit over dinner. It's not clear if we'll see a statement Wednesday evening, or Thursday, after another day of meetings. Key will be whether the EU has deemed enough progress on the Brexit front to schedule a November summit (at which point it is hoped the deal would be signed off), or whether they decide not enough progress has yet been made, with no meetings scheduled (or worse yet, a meeting is scheduled, but to discuss no-deal Brexit planning). BoE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe appears before the Treasury Select Committee for his re-appointment hearing.”