USD/JPY to lose bullish potential on a break below 104.90

USD/JPY trades at around 105.30, near the 105.64 top, as the dollar remains strong in quieter markets. The pair retains its bullish bias with initial though a break below 104.90 would change the outlook, FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik reports.

Key quotes

“Markets are looking a bit more calmer this Tuesday, stabilizing after yesterday’s enthusiasm. The American dollar gave up some ground in corrective mode, but remains the strongest, holding near weekly highs against most major rivals. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields eased, preventing the USD/JPY pair from advancing further. Still, markets remain in risk-on mode.”

“Japanese data was mixed, as the September Trade Balance printed a surplus of ¥918.4 billion, better than anticipated, although the Eco Watchers Survey on the current situation improved by less than anticipated in October, printing at 54.5 from 49.3 in the previous month. The US calendar won’t offer relevant data today.”

“From a technical point of view, USD/JPY retains its bullish stance. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair briefly fell below its 200 SMA but also that it quickly recovered above it. The 20 SMA continues advancing below the larger ones, while technical indicators consolidate near overbought levels. The tide may change on a break below 104.90, a static support level.”