28 Jul 2014
AUD/USD at risk of further weakness - TDS
FXStreet (Bali) - The AUD is at risk of more weakness towards key support at 0.93330/35, notes the FX Team at TDS.
Key Quotes
"After rallying hard Wednesday, the AUD’s push higher struggled to make an real impression above 6-month trend support-turned-resistance and the marked sell-off through the latter part of the week puts the AUD at risk of more near-term weakness towards key daily support at 0.93330/35."
Short-term price signals are tracking negatively into the end of the week. Below 0.9330 should see the low 0.92 support zone re-tested. We remain skeptical about the AUD’s ability to strengthen because the longer-term (weekly) price signals remain negative. The late June swing lower in the AUD formed a bearish key week reversal signal, close to where the market struggled in April."
"While the market has not dropped significantly in response to this development, the sequence of three weekly doji candles that have followed underscore the uncertainty that prevails here as spot pushes (and holds) below weekly trend support. Poor AUD seasonality through August favours more weakness rather than renewed gains above 0.09450. We reiterate: fade AUD strength (or get short on a clear push under 0.9330)."
Key Quotes
"After rallying hard Wednesday, the AUD’s push higher struggled to make an real impression above 6-month trend support-turned-resistance and the marked sell-off through the latter part of the week puts the AUD at risk of more near-term weakness towards key daily support at 0.93330/35."
Short-term price signals are tracking negatively into the end of the week. Below 0.9330 should see the low 0.92 support zone re-tested. We remain skeptical about the AUD’s ability to strengthen because the longer-term (weekly) price signals remain negative. The late June swing lower in the AUD formed a bearish key week reversal signal, close to where the market struggled in April."
"While the market has not dropped significantly in response to this development, the sequence of three weekly doji candles that have followed underscore the uncertainty that prevails here as spot pushes (and holds) below weekly trend support. Poor AUD seasonality through August favours more weakness rather than renewed gains above 0.09450. We reiterate: fade AUD strength (or get short on a clear push under 0.9330)."