28 Jul 2014
The week ahead could get volatile - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted that today has no Asian or European data, with only US Markit services PMI and pending home sales but they look ahead at the rest of the key impactors for the week.
Key Quotes:
“Tomorrow has Japanese unemployment and retail sales, UK mortgage approvals, and the US S&P/Case-Shiller house price index (given what happened in the US housing bubble, the “shill” part of Case-Schiller always raises a smile), and consumer confidence. The FOMC meeting also starts”.
“Wednesday has Japanese industrial production, German CPI, and US ADP employment (which was spot on with the NFP release last month so may get more attention this time). Moreover, we also get Q2 US GDP, which is expected at 3.0% QoQ annualized: that sounds positive, but isn’t really when one considers it was -2.9% in Q1, and given it is not a YoY figure, there should have been a larger bounce than that. Following that we get the FOMC decision, where unless there is a huge shock in the GDP data we can comfortably expect another USD10bn QE tapering tranche”.
“Thursday has Aussie building approvals and private-sector credit, UK house prices, German retail sales and unemployment, Indian fiscal data, and US initial claims and the Chicago PMI”.
“Friday has China’s official manufacturing PMI, Aussie PPI, the Indonesia and India manufacturing PMIs, and US payrolls for July – expectations are at 231K, down from 288K last month, with unemployment seen steady at 6.1% (officially - versus 12.1% underemployment in June)”.
“There is also final Michigan confidence and the ISM manufacturing survey. In short, if we are going to see a return of volatility, this week provides a good platform for it”.
Key Quotes:
“Tomorrow has Japanese unemployment and retail sales, UK mortgage approvals, and the US S&P/Case-Shiller house price index (given what happened in the US housing bubble, the “shill” part of Case-Schiller always raises a smile), and consumer confidence. The FOMC meeting also starts”.
“Wednesday has Japanese industrial production, German CPI, and US ADP employment (which was spot on with the NFP release last month so may get more attention this time). Moreover, we also get Q2 US GDP, which is expected at 3.0% QoQ annualized: that sounds positive, but isn’t really when one considers it was -2.9% in Q1, and given it is not a YoY figure, there should have been a larger bounce than that. Following that we get the FOMC decision, where unless there is a huge shock in the GDP data we can comfortably expect another USD10bn QE tapering tranche”.
“Thursday has Aussie building approvals and private-sector credit, UK house prices, German retail sales and unemployment, Indian fiscal data, and US initial claims and the Chicago PMI”.
“Friday has China’s official manufacturing PMI, Aussie PPI, the Indonesia and India manufacturing PMIs, and US payrolls for July – expectations are at 231K, down from 288K last month, with unemployment seen steady at 6.1% (officially - versus 12.1% underemployment in June)”.
“There is also final Michigan confidence and the ISM manufacturing survey. In short, if we are going to see a return of volatility, this week provides a good platform for it”.